The draft budget of Kazakhstan for 2027–2029 was criticised in the Kurultai due to the absence of a margin of financial resilience. Deputy Speaker of the Kurultai Daniya Yespayeva pointed to the maximum level of expenditure and deficit, the possible growth of the deficit under an unfavourable scenario and the high debt burden.
WHAT IS KNOWN
According to Daniya Yespayeva, budget expenditure for 2027 is planned at 30.2 trillion tenge — that is 100% of the permitted limit. The deficit is envisaged at 2.3% of GDP, which also corresponds to the maximum permitted guideline.
Under the unfavourable scenario set out in the analytical report for 2027, the deficit could grow from 4.6 trillion to 5.6–6.5 trillion tenge.
Yespayeva noted that the declared transition to a tighter fiscal policy is accompanied by limited room for manoeuvre. According to her, own revenues amount to 19.9 trillion tenge, or 10% of GDP.
WHAT WAS SAID ABOUT THE DEBT BURDEN
The Deputy Speaker also drew attention to expenditure related to the state debt. Debt repayment and servicing account for 40.6% of own revenues, she said.
Yespayeva linked this figure to constraints on development spending.
WHY THE GOVERNMENT CHANGED THE TENGE EXCHANGE RATE GUIDELINE
Deputy Minister of Finance Azamat Amrin explained that when preparing the forecast for 2026 in July–August 2025, the authorities proceeded from an average annual exchange rate of 540 tenge per dollar. At that time the dollar was worth 540–554 tenge. The draft budget for 2027 uses a new guideline — 480 tenge per dollar.
At the presentation of the draft budget, Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin said that the strengthening of the tenge had already affected budget revenues. According to his estimate, losses on VAT on imports exceeded 700 billion tenge: with a stronger tenge, imported goods became cheaper in tenge terms, which reduced tax receipts.
WHAT OTHER FACTORS REDUCED BUDGET REVENUES
Serik Zhumangarin also reported direct tax losses related to oil of about 200 billion tenge. The production plan for 2026 was reduced from 100.5 million to 96 million tonnes.
According to the minister's estimate, taking these factors into account, the economy is losing out on 1.7 trillion tenge of money circulation. He named the tightening of minimum reserve requirements for banks as an additional factor and noted a decline in retail sales.
WHY DEPUTIES DEMANDED THE LIST OF TRANSPORT PROJECTS
During the presentation of the draft budget, deputy Nauryz Sailaubai asked where one could familiarise oneself with the full list of transport projects whose modernisation is financed through transfers from the National Fund.
Deputy Minister of Transport Damir Kozhakhmetov replied that the list had been prepared, the projects had passed budget procedures, and he was ready to provide information about them in writing.
This answer did not satisfy Daniya Yespayeva. She stated that the deputy ministers invited to the presentation should be ready to answer deputies' questions orally, since what was at issue was a three-year budget draft. Yespayeva also asked representatives of the government to prepare in advance for discussion of their agencies' expenditure.
