(23 February 2026 | Source: Kursiv)
In Kazakhstan, the first month of 2026 saw a notable shortfall in the collection of value-added tax. Value-added tax (VAT) came in at 19.8% below the forecast level, which has already caught the attention of economists, although the overall tax dynamic remained positive. Experts note that January figures usually reflect the seasonal start of the fiscal cycle.
HOW THE BUDGET PERFORMED IN JANUARY
According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, tax revenues for January amounted to 941.8 billion tenge against a plan of 851.3 billion tenge, reports Kursiv.
The most noticeable situation was with VAT — the budget actually received 249.9 billion tenge instead of the projected 311.8 billion tenge. The shortfall amounted to nearly 61.9 billion tenge.
At the same time, corporate income tax (CIT) showed an overperformance: 436.4 billion tenge against a plan of 418.7 billion tenge.
Non-tax revenues also slightly exceeded the forecast — 23 billion tenge against a plan of 22.4 billion tenge.
TRANSFERS AND BORROWING
Receipts from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan were lower than expected. Instead of the planned 400 billion tenge, the budget received 230 billion tenge.
The total volume of budget revenues amounted to 1.27 trillion tenge against a planned level of 1.34 trillion tenge.
Loan receipts also fell: from a forecast of 666 billion tenge to 313 billion tenge.
BUDGET EXPENDITURE AND DEFICIT
Budget expenditure is still lagging behind the execution schedule. Fund utilisation stood at approximately 82.9% of the plan — around 1.33 trillion tenge.
Due to the slower pace of spending, the budget deficit turned out lower than expected: 60.5 billion tenge against a planned 260 billion tenge.
The non-oil deficit (excluding oil revenues) amounted to 315.2 billion tenge, whereas the forecast was at 666 billion tenge.
WHAT ECONOMISTS ARE SAYING
According to economist Ruslan Sultanov, the January figures reflect the traditionally subdued start to the budget year.
He noted that revenues are generally close to plan, and tax revenues show an overperformance thanks to other tax categories. However, the shortfall in VAT, against an ambitious annual plan, creates increased pressure on administration and requires a boost in economic activity.
The expert emphasised that the current picture is merely the starting point of the fiscal cycle. The real sustainability of the revenue base will become clear in the second and third quarters, when the implementation of budget expenditure accelerates.