(17 February 2026 | Source: Zakon.kz)
The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) promises to saturate the domestic market with beef thanks to a sharp increase in livestock numbers and export revenues. But before applauding these plans, it is worth asking the obvious question: how does the MoA intend to increase livestock numbers if independent experts report mass livestock diseases in several regions, and sources at the border claim that thousands of heads of cattle are crossing Kazakhstan practically without any record?
WHAT EXACTLY THE VICE-MINISTER PROMISED
At a government briefing on 17 February 2026, Vice-Minister of Agriculture Azat Sultanov responded to journalists' questions about the statement from livestock farmers who insist that a kilogram of beef in Kazakhstan should cost 10–12 thousand tenge.
According to the vice-minister, a price increase at the producer level does not necessarily mean a price increase domestically. The MoA's logic is structured as follows: farmers will earn money on export markets — Uzbekistan, Turkey, and through cross-border trade with China and Russia. The domestic market, meanwhile, is planned to be kept stable through production growth.
"As soon as surplus production appears, the products will be directed for export. At the same time, we will maintain the balance. The situation observed with beef prices, we will simply avoid, because we will flood the domestic market with meat," stated Azat Sultanov.
To this end, according to him, a separate livestock development programme has been adopted, which provides for an increase in the number of small and large cattle, as well as the development of rabbit breeding, poultry farming and beekeeping.
Incidentally, the discussion about meat prices is unfolding against a rather peculiar information backdrop. The head of the Baiterek holding, Rustan Karagoyshin, recently stated that meat prices in Kazakhstan are among the lowest in the world. The source of this conclusion, by his own admission, was ChatGPT.
90 BILLION TENGE IN INVESTMENT
Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov at a government meeting that same day reported that investment projects totalling over 90 billion tenge are being implemented in the country in the sphere of meat, milk and agricultural raw material processing.
According to the minister, 210 meat processing enterprises are already operating in the country, including full-cycle plants. 11 projects worth 41.2 billion tenge are being implemented, which will add 50 thousand tonnes of processing capacity.
In dairy processing, 180 enterprises are operating. 12 investment projects worth 41 billion tenge are being implemented, which will introduce an additional 165 thousand tonnes of capacity. In hide and wool processing, 8 projects worth 9.9 billion tenge are being implemented with an additional capacity volume of 1.3 million tonnes.
The minister emphasised that the implementation of these projects will expand the range, increase the workload on processors and strengthen the export potential of the industry.
HOW PLANS AND REALITY RELATE TO EACH OTHER
While officials were presenting investment plans, FBRK this year published materials demonstrating a strikingly different picture: mass mortality of young stock, closed statistics on disease incidence, smuggled transit of livestock, and much more.
Investment in processing is logical under one condition: there is something to process and that 'something' is accounted for. If part of the livestock leaves the cycle unrecorded, and another part passes through transit outside departmental databases, the capacity of new enterprises may prove excessive relative to the real supply of raw materials.
Or, in the event of a raw material shortage, processors will be forced to inflate purchase prices, which will impact final consumer prices. Precisely those prices whose rise the MoA promises to prevent.
The problem is not that the programme is bad. The problem is that it is built on data whose reliability raises reasonable doubts.
An announcement of growth in livestock numbers and processing against the backdrop of these questions is not proof of incompetence. But neither does such an announcement serve as an argument that the department has the situation under control.
This material reflects the editorial position of FBRK. Only trust official sources of information.