Kazakhstan's banking system remained stable following the results of the 2025 supervisory stress test. The test was passed by 11 banks, which account for 86% of the country's banking sector assets. Based on the modelled crisis scenario, the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 16.1%, significantly exceeding the minimum regulatory requirement of 5.5%.
WHAT THE STRESS TEST SHOWED
According to the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM), the supervisory stress test was conducted to assess the ability of the largest banks to withstand an adverse economic scenario.
The test involved 11 banks, which, as of 1 January 2025, accounted for 86% of banking sector assets and 87% of the sector's loan portfolio. The regulator modelled a crisis situation and analysed whether the banks had sufficient capital, income and reserves to cover potential losses.
The report notes that the aggregate Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio (k1) under the stress scenario was 16.1% at the end of Q1 2025, significantly above the established minimum regulatory level.
WHICH FACTORS HAD THE GREATEST IMPACT ON CAPITAL
Under the stress scenario, the capital adequacy ratio fell from 17.7% to 16.1%. In 2024, the decrease was from 16.3% to 15%.
The main impact came from credit and market risks. According to the ARDFM's assessment, credit risk reduced the capital ratio by 1.3 percentage points, while market risk reduced it by 1.9 percentage points.
The report also states that due to the sharp rise in market rates under the stress scenario, the negative revaluation of the fair value of bonds on banks' balance sheets, taking into account currency risk, amounted to 582 billion tenge.
At the same time, the starting net interest income of all 11 banks stood at 3 trillion tenge. According to the regulator's estimate, this income partially offset the impact of credit and market risks.
WHICH BANKS WERE MOST SENSITIVE TO INDIVIDUAL RISKS
The ARDFM compared banks based on the level of debt coverage by provisions under the stress scenario. The highest ratio was recorded at Alatau City Bank, Eurasian Bank and ForteBank.
The most significant change in asset values under the stress scenario was observed at Freedom Bank Kazakhstan, ForteBank and Bereke Bank.
At the same time, ForteBank, Bank CenterCredit and Eurasian Bank demonstrated the most pronounced positive effect of interest income on Tier 1 capital under stress conditions.
WHAT THE TEST RESULT MEANS
ARDFM Chairperson Madina Abylkasymova noted that the publication of the detailed stress test results aims to increase the transparency of the regulator's work and strengthen confidence in the banking sector. According to her, the results confirmed the reliability of the banks and the effectiveness of the existing risk management system.
Following the stress test, the ARDFM continued to apply a capital buffer to banks, the size of which ranges from 0% to 3% of the total amount of risk-weighted assets and contingent liabilities. As stated in the report, this measure is aimed at increasing banks' resilience to potential adverse economic conditions.
