Kazakh and Uzbek agricultural trade statistics diverge on three commodity groups subject to export restrictions. According to Uzbekistan's mirror statistics, Kazakh sugar, potatoes and cattle continued to enter the country. The total volume of recorded shipments differs from the figures in Kazakh reporting.
WHAT THE SUGAR EXPORT CHECK SHOWED
According to research by FRBK founder Kirill Pavlov, between 14 June and 31 August 2024 Kazakhstan banned the export of sugar, including to countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
However, Uzbekistan's statistics recorded imports from Kazakhstan of 25.1 thousand tonnes of sugar. In particular, June accounted for 9.8 thousand tonnes, July — 9.6 thousand tonnes, and August — 5.7 thousand tonnes.
At the same time, Kazakh statistics for the corresponding months show a pause in shipments. Thus, the data from the two countries do not match.
POTATOES TURNED OUT TO BE THE SECOND PROBLEMATIC CATEGORY
The next discrepancy relates to the period from 28 January to July 2025, when Kazakhstan restricted potato exports to third countries. Shipments to EAEU states were not covered by this ban.
According to Uzbekistan, during the period the restriction was in force, 34.8 thousand tonnes of potatoes arrived from Kazakhstan. The largest volume came in February — 25.5 thousand tonnes, with a further 6.8 thousand tonnes recorded in March.
The difference in statistics for the first quarter of 2025 is particularly notable: Uzbekistan reported 106.9 thousand tonnes of imports from Kazakhstan, whereas the Bureau of National Statistics reflected only 17.3 thousand tonnes of exports in that direction.
The research also notes that part of the February shipments may have been sent before the ban was introduced.
CATTLE SUPPLIES DURING THE BAN
The third discrepancy concerns exports of cattle in June 2025.
From 15 May 2025, a ban on the export of young bulls was in force, and from 8 April 2025, a ban on the export of breeding stock. Thus, in June the restrictions covered both categories.
At the same time, Uzbekistan recorded imports from Kazakhstan of 996 head of cattle with a total value of $199 thousand. Among the livestock supplied there were no breeding animals of the relevant category.
From July 2025 to April 2026, Uzbekistan's mirror statistics show zero shipments for this commodity line.
WHAT THE COPPER SCRAP EXPORT SHOWED
In addition to foodstuffs, the research identified discrepancies in the export statistics for non-agricultural goods. In particular, copper scrap attracted attention.
From 5 May to November 2024, a ban on its export by all modes of transport was in force. However, according to the mirror statistics of China, for May–September 2024 the country recorded imports from Kazakhstan of 810 tonnes of copper scrap worth a total of $6.4 million.
Thus, Chinese statistics reflect shipments of Kazakh copper scrap during the period the export restriction was in force.
WHY THE STATISTICS OF THE TWO COUNTRIES DIVERGE
The research used monthly data from the international UN Comtrade database, including Kazakh reporting and the mirror statistics of partner countries.
At the same time, Kirill Pavlov separately draws attention to the limitations of the method. The recipient country may record goods in the month of their arrival, whereas the sender country reflects the shipment in a different reporting period. In addition, statistics do not always make it possible to establish the route, mode of transport and circumstances of the movement of products.
WHAT REMAINS OUTSIDE THE CHECK
A separate problem is trade within the EAEU. Russia has not published trade statistics since 2022, and the available monthly reporting from Kazakhstan in UN Comtrade ends in February 2024. Therefore, part of the movement of goods within the union cannot be verified using mirror data.
