Experts have recorded significant discrepancies between the official data from the Ministry regarding water supply to the Kyzylorda region and actual water consumption indicators. According to the results of an independent analysis, real water consumption turned out to be almost two times less than the volumes declared by the authorities, which raises questions about the reliability of state reporting in the water sector.
Founder of the FBRC and agricultural analyst Kirill Pavlov in his Telegram channel "Kazakh Chuvash" drew attention to significant discrepancies in the data on water consumption in the Kyzylorda region. According to his calculations, over the last 20 years, an average of about 1 billion m³ per season passed through the Tasboget hydrometric post. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation claims to supply over 3 billion m³ to the region.
"The difference of 2 billion cubic metres is substantial — that's about 400 thousand Olympic swimming pools," notes the expert, calling for fact-checking of the official data.
To verify the information, "Pavlov Analytics" conducted a large-scale study of water consumption for each field in the Kyzylorda region. The work covered more than 40 thousand fields with a total area of over 100 thousand hectares of irrigated land. Using satellite imagery, specialists determined the actual water consumption by plants in the fields.
The results obtained showed significant deviations from the official data. In 2024, the actual water consumption by all fields amounted to 0.681 billion m³, and in 2025 — 0.689 billion m³. These figures differ significantly from the numbers declared by the Ministry.
Pavlov also carried out calculations taking into account water losses during transportation. According to his data, about 50% of water is lost when supplied through main canals, and another up to 25% — in inter-farm canals and on the fields. Thus, to deliver 1 m³ of water to a field, approximately 2.67 m³ must be supplied at the head of the canal.
Taking these coefficients into account, the real water requirement is: in 2024 — about 1.82 billion m³, in 2025 — 1.84 billion m³. These figures correspond to the historical data from the Tasboget hydrometric post, whereas the official figure of 3.03 billion m³ exceeds the calculated requirement by almost two thirds.
In connection with the identified contradictions, the analyst appealed to the Ministry with a demand to provide monthly water supply data broken down by canals, with separate indication of supply volumes, losses and actual consumption in the fields. Such detail would make it possible to compare reports with actual water volumes and eliminate existing contradictions in the statistics.
The expert also raised a logical question: if indeed three times more water was supplied than in normal years, why did the Syr Darya near Kyzylorda dry up as early as August?
Against the backdrop of these events, the Central Communications Service (CCS) announced a press conference "On the completion of the irrigation season in the country". The speakers listed include First Vice-Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurlan Aldamzharov, Deputy Chairman of the Committee for Regulation, Protection and Use of Water Resources Gulmira Imasheva, and Head of the Department for Regulation of Water Resources Use Saken Atel.
The identified discrepancies in water consumption data require an official explanation from the relevant Ministry. The reliability of water statistics is of critical importance for planning agricultural production and managing water resources in conditions of their scarcity. Perhaps the upcoming Ministry press conference will be able to bring clarity to this issue and demonstrate the authorities' readiness for an open dialogue with the expert community.