Kazakhstan plans to increase its oil refining volume from 18 to 39 million tonnes per year, and to change the ratio of production to refining from 5:1 to 2.5:1. These targets are set out in the Concept for the Development of the Oil Refining Industry for 2025–2040.
WHAT THE NEW CONCEPT PROVIDES FOR
According to the Ministry of Energy, the main provisions of the concept were presented by the Head of the Department for Oil Refining and Petroleum Product Production, Nazym Bekbatyrova, at the session "Deep Oil Refining Instead of the Raw Material Model" within the framework of the 13th annual summit "Petrochemicals and Oil Refining of Central Asia and the Caspian – 2026".
The document provides for the modernisation and expansion of refining capacity, an increase in the depth of oil refining, improvement in the quality of petroleum products and the development of petrochemicals. In other words, the aim is to refine more raw material within the country and obtain more finished products from it.
By 2040, the refining depth is planned to increase from 89% to 94%, and the quality of motor fuels is to be raised to environmental class K5+. An increase in the production of benzene and paraxylene is also envisaged.
FROM RAW MATERIAL PRODUCTION TO PRODUCTS
At present, approximately five volumes of production account for one volume of refined oil. The target ratio of 2.5:1 means that the share of oil sent for refining must become substantially higher.
The concept includes six areas: providing the economy with domestic petroleum products, increasing the production of petrochemical products, developing applied science, strengthening human resources potential, adapting the industry to technological trends and expanding export opportunities.
According to the document's estimate, implementing the measures will require $15–19 billion in investment. The development of the industry will also create new jobs and strengthen the scientific and technological base.
WHY LIGHT OIL MATTERS
The composition of Kazakh oil is of additional importance for refining. Financial analyst Andrey Chebotarev notes that the CPC Blend grade is classified as very light oil and is currently selling for more than Brent, at around $112.1 per barrel.
Light oil is valued, in particular, because more light fractions can be obtained from it — for example, components for the production of naphtha, petrol and feedstock for petrochemicals.
WHAT IS HAPPENING ON THE DIESEL MARKET
Another factor that may influence the cost of external supplies is linked to the petroleum products market. In the report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) for September 2026, the situation on the diesel market is described as a Diesel squeeze — that is, sharp tension due to a shortage of supply.
In early September, diesel in the United States exceeded $200 per barrel, which is 94% above the pre-war level. Diesel exports from the Persian Gulf countries fell to 390 thousand barrels per day in August, and supplies from Russia also declined.
For Kazakhstan, this matters because of trade with the European Union. In 2025, trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the EU amounted to €41.4 billion, of which €10.6 billion accounted for European supplies to Kazakhstan.
At the same time, almost half of imports from the EU consist of machinery and transport equipment, with a further 21.5% being chemical products, including pharmaceuticals. If high diesel prices persist, European hauliers' costs may rise, and part of these costs may be reflected in the cost of delivering goods to Kazakhstan. However, on the basis of the data provided, it cannot be asserted that European imports for Kazakhstan have already become more expensive specifically for this reason.
