Domestic trade in Kazakhstan continues to grow, but noticeably more slowly than a year earlier. On almost all key indicators, January-August 2026 lags behind the rates of the same period in 2025. At the same time, the structure of the sector remains unchanged - two thirds of turnover is formed by wholesale trade, and its growth, in turn, increasingly depends on a few specific regions.
HOW TRADE GROWTH RATES HAVE CHANGED
According to data from the Bureau of National Statistics, the physical volume index for the "Trade" sector in January-August 2026 was 106%, that is, growth compared with the corresponding period last year was 6%. This is almost 3 percentage points below the rates of January-August 2025, when growth was 8.9%. The slowdown affected both segments: growth in wholesale trade fell from 9.8% to 6.7%, and in retail trade from 6.9% to 4.5%.
In the total volume of the sector, wholesale trade accounts for 66.7%, and retail trade for 32.8%. This ratio has remained almost unchanged over the past two years.
WHY WHOLESALE TRADE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER
The volume of wholesale trade in January-August 2026 amounted to KZT 34.7 trillion - growth of 6.7% compared with January-August 2025. The structure of wholesale turnover is dominated by non-food goods and industrial and technical products - they account for 79.8% of turnover.
Wholesale trade is concentrated in a few regions. Almaty accounts for 35.7% of the entire national volume, Astana for 14.1%, Atyrau Region for 13.4%, and Shymkent for 6.3%. Thus, four regions form almost 70% of the country's entire wholesale trade.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN RETAIL
The volume of retail trade amounted to KZT 17 trillion - 4.5% more than in January-August 2025. At the same time, growth is uneven within the segment: sales of goods by trading enterprises increased by only 1.7%, whereas sales by individual entrepreneurs, including trade in markets, grew by 10.6%. This means that the less formalised retail segment is growing almost six times faster than organised trade.
By form of ownership, 89.2% of retail turnover (KZT 15 trillion) is provided by enterprises in private ownership, while another 10.8% (KZT 1.8 trillion) comes from enterprises with foreign participation.
Food products provided faster growth than non-food products: sales of food products increased by 10%, while non-food products grew by only 1.8%, although in the retail structure food products account for 34.1% of turnover, and non-food goods for 65.9%.
As of 1 September 2026, the volume of commodity inventories of trading enterprises amounted to KZT 1.7 trillion, which corresponds to 59 days of trade, meaning current inventories would be enough for almost two months of operation if sales rates are maintained.
WHO FORMS REGIONAL TURNOVER
In retail trade, as in wholesale trade, large cities lead: Almaty accounts for 32.3% of the national volume, Astana for 14%, Karaganda Region for 7%, and East Kazakhstan Region (EKR) for 5.4%. The coincidence of leaders in both trade segments confirms that business and consumer activity in the country is concentrated in the same few regions.
