In the first half of 2026, the number of car loan applications in Kazakhstan fell by 9% compared with the same period in 2025. A year earlier, the figure had instead grown by more than 50%.
WHY DEMAND HAS FALLEN
According to data from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), after several years of rapid expansion, the car lending market has moved into a correction phase. Experts link this trend to market saturation, tight monetary conditions, a more cautious lending policy, and a reduction in the scale of dealer promotions and marketing programmes.
The approval rate for car loans fell from 17.6% to 16.8%. The number of approved applications dropped by 13%, to 449,700, whereas a year earlier it had grown by 68%.
CAR LOAN RATES HAVE RISEN
The weighted average rate on car loans rose over the year from 18.8% to 24.4%. The AFK notes that the change in interest rate conditions may have been driven by more expensive funding, as well as a shift in the structure of supply and demand following a period of active dealer programmes.
Against the backdrop of rising rates, the ratio of the estimated monthly payment to the average salary increased from 24.7% to 30.6%. At the same time, the indicator remains below the threshold level of 50%.
LENDING VOLUME DOWN BY ALMOST A QUARTER
In the first half of 2026, the volume of car loan disbursements fell by 24%, to 886.6 billion tenge. The decline was noticeably deeper than the contraction in overall retail lending, which stood at 3.6%.
The share of car loans in new retail lending fell to 9.9% from 13.2% at the end of 2025. As a result, a segment that in previous years had been one of the main drivers of retail lending became one of the factors behind its slowdown.
HOW THE CAR LOAN PORTFOLIO HAS CHANGED
Owing to the reduction in new lending, the car loan portfolio grew by just 5.2%, compared with 23.2% a year earlier. Car loans nonetheless retain a significant share of household debt — 16.3%.
More than 90% of car loans are in the range from 5 million to 20 million tenge. The share of overdue debt rose from 2.7% to 3%, but remains below the average for the retail market, which stands at 4.4%.
At the same time, vehicle production volumes in Kazakhstan nearly doubled over the half-year — to 138,700 units, against 69,800 a year earlier. According to the AFK's assessment, the expansion of domestic production is increasing the supply of cars in the country.
