Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan (MDDIAI) has revealed details of the development of the Tasqyn flood forecasting system, created, according to the ministry, using the own funds of JSC "NC "Kazakhstan Garysh Sapary" (KGS) without involving contractors.
It is reported that the system is integrated with "Kazhydromet" and uses a combination of open-source software to model flood zones, however, questions remain about its effectiveness during the current flood season.
TECHNICAL FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM
Earlier, in connection with the start of the flood period in Kazakhstan and already recorded cases of flooding in the North Kazakhstan, Aktobe and Kostanay regions, the editorial board of FBRK sent an official request to the Ministry of Digitalisation to ascertain the cost of the new flood forecasting system project and an assessment of its actual effectiveness.
According to the MDDIAI's response, the Tasqyn system was developed in accordance with the approved Methodology for Forecasting and Modelling Floods, agreed upon by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI RK), the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES RK) and the Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources (MEGNR RK). It is noted that the information system uses geospatial data on riverbeds and digital elevation models, provided by "Kazgeodezia".
Notably, the official MDDIAI response uses the outdated name "Kazgeodezia", even though back in September 2020 this organisation was reorganised by merging with RSEE "National Cartographic and Geodetic Fund" and was renamed RSE on REM "National Centre for Geodesy and Spatial Information" (NCGSI). Such an inaccuracy in naming raises certain questions about the thoroughness of the preparation of official information about the Tasqyn system in general.
The main function of the system is to model zones of potential flooding and identify settlements at risk of flooding according to risk classes (high/moderate). It is reported that for this purpose, forecast data from "Kazhydromet" and the MWRI RK on expected water levels at hydrological posts, as well as information on planned water discharges from reservoirs, are used.
"The system allows modelling of potential flood zones and identifying settlements at risk of flooding by risk class based on forecast data", the MDDIAI response states.
It is important to note that according to the algorithm of interaction during the flood-prone period between authorised state bodies, data on threats of a flood situation arising are transmitted to the Command Centre for Strategic Planning and Operational Management of the MES for further relay to the regions.
FUNCTIONAL CAPABILITIES OF TASQYN
The system implements a number of key functions:
- A digital hydrograph of the flow of forecast rivers was developed, displaying actual and forecast data on water discharges and levels at hydrological posts from "Kazhydromet", GloFAS and Talsim.
- An operational summary for reservoirs has been automated in tabular form and as a digital hydrograph showing current and planned water discharges.
- A tool displaying the results of flood modelling has been created.
- Flood-prone rivers and reservoirs of Kazakhstan, managed by "Kazvodkhoz", have been digitised and uploaded.
- Hydrological posts and meteorological stations of "Kazhydromet" are displayed, as well as various thematic layers (regional boundaries, district boundaries, agricultural land, roads, railways, power lines, animal burial grounds, gas pipelines).
- Historical (for 2024) and current satellite images of the 2025 flood have been uploaded into the system.
SOFTWARE: A COMBINATION OF OPEN-SOURCE SOLUTIONS
According to MDDIAI, the information system was developed by specialists of JSC NC "Kazakhstan Garysh Sapary" using both domestic and foreign software. It is noted that the following technologies and software products were used in the development process:
- React — a library for creating user interfaces in JavaScript.
- NestJS — a framework (set of ready-made components) for developing server-side applications in TypeScript/JavaScript.
- PostgreSQL — an open-source relational database management system.
- PostGIS — an extension for PostgreSQL designed for working with geographic data.
- GeoServer — open-source server software for publishing and processing spatial data.
- HEC-RAS — modelling software used in computational fluid dynamics for modelling water flow hydraulics in natural rivers and other channels.
The ministry particularly emphasises that the chosen foreign software is free and open-source. The choice is justified by the maturity and stability of the solutions, the availability of documentation and community support, flexibility and scalability, as well as compliance with international standards.
INTEGRATION AND TECHNICAL SUPPORT
The Tasqyn system is integrated with "Kazhydromet" to receive measured data at hydrological posts and weather stations, as well as to receive long-term forecast data on water levels at hydrological posts during the flood period. For this, the existing API of "Kazhydromet" is used.
According to the MDDIAI response, costs for integration work are not provided. Technical support for the system is carried out by employees of JSC NC "Kazakhstan Garysh Sapary". Since the system is the company's property, there are no annual maintenance costs.
The procedure for eliminating malfunctions and failures includes several stages: monitoring and problem identification, diagnostics, prompt response, restoration of operability, as well as documenting and analysing incidents.
TESTS AND SECURITY
JSC "State Technical Service" ("STS") conducted tests of the Tasqyn system for compliance with uniform information security requirements, following which five positive protocols were obtained. It is reported that within the framework of these tests, load tests were carried out that meet information security requirements.
Based on the results of the first stage of testing, JSC "STS" identified a number of comments, including vulnerabilities, which were eliminated during the retest. However, the details of the identified vulnerabilities are not disclosed in the ministry's response.
DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS
In the MDDIAI response, it is noted that in 2025, further development of the Tasqyn information system is planned. At the same time, the final cost budget of the project will be formed and approved in accordance with the established procedure. Specific plans for developing the system's functionality are not specified in the document.
EFFECTIVENESS ASSESSMENT
Despite the detailed description of the technical aspects of the Tasqyn system, the MDDIAI response lacks information about the effectiveness of its operation during the current flood period. Given that according to the initial plan, the system was supposed to provide the first forecasts in early March, and by the middle of the month flooding had already been recorded in several regions of the country, the question of the actual benefit of the implemented system remains open.
Also noteworthy is a certain carelessness in the presentation of information in the official response: in addition to outdated names of organisations, there is also a lack of specific data on a number of key issues. This raises certain doubts about how fully the department is informed about the operation of the system under its purview.
The question also remains open about the real cost of developing the system. Although the department states that the system was created using the own funds of JSC "NC "Kazakhstan Garysh Sapary" without involving contractors, the specific amounts are not disclosed. This makes it difficult to assess the effectiveness of the state's investment in this project.
The wording about development "using own funds" raises additional questions. Even if the system was created without external financing, it is obvious that the work required significant human resources — salaries for programmers, analysts, testers and other specialists of "KGS".
Given that the company is a national one and is funded from the budget, the development was effectively still carried out at public expense. The lack of transparency regarding the funds spent on the project does not allow an objective assessment of the value for money of the Tasqyn system.
CONCLUSIONS
The Tasqyn flood forecasting system is a complex software and hardware complex that uses modern technologies for modelling flood zones and forecasting the flood situation. Nevertheless, its real effectiveness in preventing and minimising the consequences of floods remains in question.
For an objective assessment, additional data is needed on how accurate the forecasts were during the current flood period, whether measures were taken in a timely manner based on these forecasts, and how this affected the situation in the flooded regions.
The editorial board of FBRK continues to monitor the situation and expects additional comments from the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation regarding the effectiveness of the new information system during the current flood period.