In February 2025, Kazakhstan launched Tasqyn flood forecasting system, designed to calculate water inflow to reservoirs, determine the volume of spring floods, and model flood zones. However, by March, when the system was supposed to provide its first forecasts, flooding began in several regions of the country, calling into question the effectiveness and value for money of the new project.
LARGE-SCALE PROJECT WITH BIG PROMISES
According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), the Tasqyn system covers 142 hydrological stations on 128 river sections, where 114 specialists from basin inspectorates and branches of Kazvodkhoz update data daily. A key advantage touted was its integration with the global flood warning system GloFAS, which was supposed to ensure more accurate and timely forecasts.
"In addition to preparing for floods within the country, we are also in constant contact with colleagues from neighbouring states. Information exchange is happening promptly. The release of water from reservoirs is also ongoing to ensure free capacity for receiving spring floodwaters. Today, reservoirs can accept 13 billion cubic metres of water," said Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov.
The Tasqyn system was expected to provide its first forecast for the 2025 flood period in early March. Concurrently with the system's implementation, the Ministry of Water reported extensive preparations for the flood season: over the past year, the department repaired 74 hydraulic structures and cleared 239 kilometres of river channels to improve their capacity.
FLOOD PREPARATION IN NUMBERS
In 16 regions of the country, 384 dams with a total length of 584 kilometres were repaired and built. In conjunction with local akimats, 57 projects are being implemented for the construction, reconstruction, and restoration of protective dams and hydraulic structures in 84 settlements across six regions: Akmola, Aktobe, West Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan, and Kostanay. According to the ministry, these works are intended to ensure the safety of 359,000 people in the event of floods.
It is reported that in 2024, a multifactor survey of 84 water management facilities was carried out in 14 regions of Kazakhstan. This year, a further 105 hydraulic structures are planned to be surveyed.
"All of the country's reservoirs are operating according to previously approved schedules. Constant water level monitoring and round-the-clock duty shifts are in place. Water release from reservoirs to create free capacity continues. This will ensure the safe passage of water during the flood period," noted Vice-Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurlan Aldamzharov.
REALITY VS. EXPECTATIONS
Despite all the statements and preparatory work, by mid-March 2025, flooding had already been recorded in several regions of Kazakhstan:
• In North Kazakhstan region, the private sector of Petropavlovsk was flooded by meltwater. Utility services have been forced to switch to round-the-clock operations.
• In Aktobe region, meltwater washed away a temporary bridge over the Uil River, disrupting road traffic. In the Kobda district, the Tumanshy River burst its banks, flooding the road to Kanay village.
• In Kostanay region, on 16 March, meltwater flooded a section of highway on the border with Russia.
Forecasters continue to warn of possible flooding in the Aktobe, East Kazakhstan, Akmola, Pavlodar regions, as well as the Abai and Zhetysu regions. Intense snowmelt is expected, along with rising river levels, and there is a risk of overflowing rivers and flooding of residential buildings, farm structures, and roads.
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
Against the backdrop of the onset of flooding, a logical question arises: where are the promised forecasts from the Tasqyn system? Equally important is the question of the project's cost. Journalist and analyst Kirill Pavlov raised the issue in his Telegram channel regarding how much the Tasqyn flood forecasting system cost the state. The editorial board of FBRK has sent official requests to the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, as well as the Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry, to ascertain the project's cost and an assessment of its actual effectiveness.
CONCLUSIONS
The effectiveness of the Tasqyn flood forecasting system is currently seriously in doubt. Despite extensive preparatory work and the introduction of the new system, regions of Kazakhstan are already facing flooding, and the promised forecasts were not delivered on time. Without information on the project's cost, it is impossible to assess its value for money; however, the system's initial results raise questions about the advisability of investment in this project.
It remains to be hoped that the ministries will provide comprehensive answers to the questions raised and take the necessary measures to improve the effectiveness of the Tasqyn system, upon which the safety of hundreds of thousands of Kazakhstan's citizens depends.