(26 February 2026 | Source: Telegram channel of Arsen Sarkesov)
Sociological surveys and online polls in Kazakhstan are increasingly met with audience scepticism. According to experts, some of these initiatives serve an instrumental rather than a research function. The issue is less about recording public opinion and more about shaping context and desired perceptions.
Why an online poll is not the same as sociology
Political scientist Arsen Sarkesov raised the issue of trust in sociological surveys and online polls on his Telegram channel. In the post, he stated that some such formats create an illusion of public opinion and are used not so much to measure sentiments as to shape context.
As an example, the political scientist cites a poll published by blogger «JURTTYŃ BALASY» (Murat Daniyar) in a stories format. In his assessment, such a format remains common on social media, but should not be confused with sociological research.
According to Sarkesov, an online poll on a personal account records the opinions of one’s own audience. A blogger’s followers form a community with a particular ideological profile, since people generally subscribe based on shared views. As a result, the answers reflect the position of a circle of like-minded individuals.
He notes that with an opposition-leaning audience, the result will match that outlook, while with a different ideological orientation, it will be the opposite. In both cases, he argues, it is a reaction within a closed digital environment, not a representative study.
Wording as a tool of influence
Particular attention is paid to the phrasing of questions. In political polls, this is not always neutral and may contain judgement or a hidden premise. Such framing sets the tone for perception.
As an example, Sarkesov examines a question about «fair competition» and a possible economic downturn. In his assessment, it contains several methodological issues:
- ambiguity of wording;
- a judgemental framework regarding the current state;
- a pre-set range of interpretations.
Moreover, the response options may be arranged on a scale from positive to negative, which influences the respondent’s position. In such a case, the poll serves more of a scripting function than a research one.
Polls as a tool of political communication
The political scientist notes that in modern political communication, polls often serve an instrumental function. Through the framing of a question, a discussion context and perception of the topic are shaped.
During election campaigns, street polls, he says, are used not only to gauge opinion but also for informational presence—reminding people of candidates, voting dates, and the agenda.
He also highlights that such informational constructs often appear among a narrow circle of authors who have previously been involved in projects with foreign funding. At the same time, the publication itself provides no data on a direct link between specific online polls and foreign donors.
Thus, the issue is raised within the context of a broader discussion about transparency in the funding of the information sphere.
The topic emerges against the backdrop of a parliamentary initiative on transparency of foreign funding for NGOs and media. At the end of 2025, the head of the People’s Party of Kazakhstan (PPK) faction, Magerram Magerramov, demanded the disclosure of sources and amounts of foreign funds. According to the State Revenue Committee (SRC), in the first half of 2025, such funds were received by 186 individuals and legal entities. Among the risks cited by deputies was possible influence on social processes.
Social media algorithms amplify emotional topics
Sarkesov also points to the role of social media algorithms. Platforms promote content that triggers emotional reactions and engagement. The sharper the wording, the higher the likelihood of it being spread.
In his view, under such conditions, the priority can shift from accuracy of measurement to creating the effect of discussion. As a result, a gap emerges between research and communication—one that takes on particular significance in the political sphere.