Risks for the agriculture sector in Kazakhstan have increased amid a decline in oil refining in Russia, a tense situation in the fuel market of Central Asia, and the upcoming scheduled maintenance of the Pavlodar Oil Refinery (OR). According to analysts, this could lead to higher costs for farmers during the harvest campaign.
WHY THE RISKS HAVE EMERGED
According to Ulysmedia.kz, citing analysts at Teniz Capital, high fuel costs, a possible reduction in supplies from Russia, and rising fertiliser prices could increase expenses for agricultural producers.
Analysts also cite the scheduled maintenance of the Pavlodar Refinery, planned from 18 September to 17 October—during the active harvest campaign in the northern regions of the country—as an additional internal factor.
It is noted that the situation for farmers will depend on the availability of diesel fuel reserves, the volume of domestic supplies in the autumn, and the actual import of fuel from Russia.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE REGIONAL FUEL MARKET
According to analysts, a tense situation with fuel supply is already being observed in the countries of Central Asia. Uzbekistan has increased its petrol imports, while Kyrgyzstan is seeking alternatives to Russian supplies.
It is also noted that Russia has started importing petrol by sea from India. According to Kpler, oil refining volumes in Russia could recover by 7–22% over three months; however, as the materials indicate, this is insufficient to fully eliminate the deficit.
At the same time, China has begun to partially lift restrictions on petrol exports. According to experts, this could improve the availability of alternative supplies for the Asian market, but the effect for Central Asia is limited by high logistics costs.
HOW THIS RELATES TO THE HARVEST CAMPAIGN
As of 1 June, wheat reserves in Kazakhstan stood at 6.9 million tonnes. The forecast for the grain harvest in 2026 is estimated in the range of 14 million to 15.3 million tonnes.
For the spring field work, farmers were allocated 402,000 tonnes of diesel fuel. It is clarified that this volume was calculated for the period from February to June and was not intended for the harvest campaign.
An additional factor is the scheduled maintenance works at two Kazakh refineries simultaneously. Work at the Atyrau Refinery has already begun and is reported to last until 15 July, after which maintenance is expected at the Pavlodar Refinery.
WHAT FACTORS AFFECT THE SITUATION
The fuel deficit in neighbouring countries creates additional external demand for the region's resources. Furthermore, there is a risk of competition for fuel supplies from China, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan.
