Problems in the Russian fuel market could indirectly affect the exchange rate of the tenge and inflation in Kazakhstan. This view was expressed by analysts, noting that the impact would depend on the situation with Russian oil refining, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, and measures taken by financial regulators.
WHY THE FUEL CRISIS COULD AFFECT THE TENGE
According to LS, analyst at Finam Alexander Potavin believes that the situation on the fuel market in Russia could increase pressure on the ruble exchange rate. If the Russian currency weakens, the tenge may also partially decline in its wake, since the economies of Kazakhstan and Russia are closely linked through trade and the mechanisms of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
According to the expert, the impact of ruble exchange rate fluctuations could be smoothed out by the actions of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. At the same time, he views the weakening of the Russian currency primarily as a factor of possible inflation growth, as it could lead to higher costs for fuel, logistics, and goods imported from Russia.
WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE RUSSIAN FUEL MARKET
Analyst at Finam Sergei Kaufman noted that, in his estimation, about 25% of refining capacity in Russia may currently be damaged.
He emphasised that an accurate assessment of the scale of the damage is hindered by the limited amount of available information. According to him, most oil refineries sustain moderate damage, and repair times could range from several weeks to several months. The expert also believes that a key condition for resolving the fuel crisis is the absence of new attacks on oil refineries.
WHAT CONSEQUENCES ARE POSSIBLE FOR KAZAKHSTAN
Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam Olga Belenkaya noted that the impact on the economy of Kazakhstan is indirect in nature.
According to her, Russia remains the largest supplier of imported goods to Kazakhstan — the volume of deliveries in 2025 amounted to $19 billion. In particular, Kazakhstan has traditionally imported Russian petroleum products, industrial goods, and agricultural products. At the same time, the expert recalled that the export of petroleum products, including aviation kerosene and petrol, from Russia is temporarily banned, and Kazakhstan also has a temporary ban on the export of petroleum products.
In the expert's opinion, a possible increase in fuel prices and reduced supplies from Russia could lead to higher costs for transport, agricultural products, and Russian goods, which could accelerate inflation in Kazakhstan.
WHAT THE SCALE OF THE IMPACT DEPENDS ON
According to Olga Belenkaya, the government of Kazakhstan already has experience in curbing price increases for fuels and lubricants, and Russian authorities are taking similar measures.
The expert believes that the impact on inflation in Kazakhstan could be moderate and will depend on the duration and severity of the fuel shortage on the Russian market.
