A large-scale power outage on 14 August 2026 in Almaty and a number of regions of Kazakhstan began after an emergency shutdown of generation in Kyrgyzstan. The Ministry of Energy reported that it was not aware of the risk of such a scenario developing before these events.
WHAT WAS THE STARTING POINT OF THE ACCIDENT
According to Kursiv, citing preliminary information from the system operator KEGOC, the starting point of the accident was the shutdown of two hydro-generators at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station in Kyrgyzstan with a total capacity of 625 MW.
The department explained that such a volume of shutdown exceeded the permissible value of 300 MW, which is taken into account when calculating standard emergency disturbances. The final causes of the technical disruption must be established by a special commission.
WHY THE ACCIDENT AFFECTED ALMATY
According to the preliminary version, the shutdown of generation caused a sharp redistribution of power in the Southern zone of the Unified Electric Power System (UPS) of Kazakhstan. The resulting power flow led to an overload of the transit and the subsequent disconnection of 500 kV power transmission lines.
After this, the Southern zone of the UPS of Kazakhstan switched to isolated operation. The ministry emphasised that increasing the output of individual power plants could not fully solve the problem, since the network capacity and regime stability remained the limiting factors.
Restoring power supply to all consumers took approximately 4.5 hours.
WHAT MEASURES WERE APPLIED BEFORE THE ACCIDENT
KEGOC is responsible for modelling regimes, including emergency ones. Based on calculations, the company configures emergency control automation and monitors the operating regimes of the electrical network and interstate power flows.
At the same time, the Ministry of Energy's response does not provide specific dates for the latest calculations, the results of stress tests, or information on whether a scenario close to the events of 14 August was directly modelled.
WHAT ROLE DID THE POWER DEFICIT PLAY
Before the accident, the power deficit in the Southern zone of Kazakhstan was 2,461 MW. After the accident began, available generation reserves were deployed: Kapshagai Hydroelectric Power Station used 40 MW, and Zhambyl Thermal Power Plant used 2 MW.
The ministry does not consider the generation deficit to be the direct root cause of the blackout. Preliminarily, the department links the start of the accident to a sharp change in power flow from the unified energy system of Central Asia.
At the same time, the Ministry of Energy acknowledges that the limited system reserve reduces the ability of the power system to respond quickly to major emergency disturbances. The final role of the reserve shortfall must be determined by the commission.
WHAT DECISIONS ARE LINKED TO THE INVESTIGATION
The specific list of additional protection measures after the blackout has not yet been determined. After the investigation is completed, a special commission must establish the final causes and conditions of the technical disruption, on the basis of which organisational and technical measures will be developed.
At the same time, KEGOC is implementing a project to strengthen the electrical network of the Southern zone of the UPS of Kazakhstan. It includes the construction of 500 kV power transmission lines "Shu-Zhambyl" and "Zhambyl-Shymkent" with a total length of 475 km, as well as the reconstruction and expansion of substations.
The cost of the project is 157.67 billion tenge. In addition, projects to modernise Almaty Thermal Power Plants-2 and Thermal Power Plants-3 are at the completion stage, which, according to the Ministry of Energy, should increase total generation by more than 500 MW.
Earlier, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov instructed that efforts be stepped up to improve the reliability of the energy system following the mass power outage on 14 August.
