The Government of Kazakhstan has developed three scenarios for economic development for 2027–2029 depending on world oil prices. With a barrel price of between $50 and $85, average GDP growth could range from 3.2% to 5.9%. The baseline forecast assumes economic growth above 5% per year driven by increased output in non-oil sectors.
WHAT SCENARIOS THE GOVERNMENT HAS PROVIDED FOR
Deputy Prime Minister — Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin presented the forecast for the country's socio-economic development at a Kurultai meeting.
The Government has prepared three variants taking into account possible changes in external conditions, primarily oil prices.
- Optimistic: oil at $85 per barrel, average economic growth — 5.9%.
- Baseline: oil at $70 per barrel, economic growth — above 5%.
- Pessimistic: oil at $50 per barrel, average GDP growth — 3.2%.
At the same time, international organisations have lowered their oil price forecast for 2027 to $70.3 per barrel.
HOW KAZAKHSTAN'S GDP WILL CHANGE
Under the baseline scenario, average annual real GDP growth in 2027–2029 will exceed 5%. In particular, in 2027 the figure is forecast at 5.3%, in 2028 — 5.5%, and in 2029 — 5.4%.
Nominal GDP, according to the forecast, will increase from KZT 199.3 trillion in 2027 to KZT 245 trillion in 2029.
WHICH SECTORS WILL DRIVE GROWTH
The Ministry of National Economy expects that manufacturing industry will grow faster than the mining sector. The main contribution to the dynamics of manufacturing output, according to the forecast, will come from metallurgy, mechanical engineering, production of construction materials, the chemical industry and food production.
Agriculture should become another source of growth. Its average annual growth rate is projected at no less than 5%.
In construction, growth rates are expected to increase from 16% in 2027 to 17.3% in 2029. Transport and logistics, energy and water infrastructure projects, as well as the modernisation of housing and communal services and social infrastructure, are cited as factors driving the sector's development.
The Government also forecasts increased activity in the services sector. On average per year, trade should grow by 5.7%, transport and warehousing — by 10.4%, information and communications — by 9.2%.
HOW THE GOVERNMENT CUT SPENDING
At the Kurultai meeting, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said that when preparing the budget for 2027, the Government cut the declared expenditure by KZT 6.7 trillion. According to him, government bodies submitted requests for KZT 36.9 trillion, but the approved volume of expenditure amounted to KZT 30.2 trillion.
Bektenov also noted that in 2026 the Government adjusted the budget, cut spending and redistributed KZT 360 billion to higher-priority purposes. According to him, work to optimise state spending is carried out on an ongoing basis.
In addition, on the instructions of the Head of State, the moratorium on the construction of administrative buildings for government bodies continues. The Prime Minister described this expenditure item as capital-intensive.
