The process of the Caspian Sea's shallowing has accelerated so rapidly in recent years that environmentalists in coastal countries are raising the alarm. According to them, an environmental catastrophe could arrive much sooner than predicted.
According to Ulysmedia.kz, the most critical situation is observed off the coast of Kazakhstan, where in some places the sea has receded 50 kilometres from the shoreline.
The global movement Save The Caspian Sea reports that monitoring over the last 18 years has shown a drop in the Caspian's level of two metres. It is noted that if the current rate of shallowing continues, the level of the Caspian Sea could fall 18 metres below its current level by the year 2100.
Specialists warn that the impact of global warming and other anthropogenic factors could significantly accelerate this process, leading to an environmental catastrophe much earlier than expected. It is reported that from 2005 to 2023, the total area of the Caspian shrank by more than 30,000 square kilometres.
At the same time, environmentalists claim that the fall in water level is one of the main causes of the mass death of Caspian seals. While their numbers were once estimated at around 1 million individuals, the population has now shrunk to 70,000.
Furthermore, the drying up of the Caspian means that large cargo ships can no longer enter the Kazakh port of Aktau. In response, the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan stated that design and estimate documentation for deepening the seabed in the port of Aktau has already been prepared and passed state examination in December 2024. The project is planned to cost 42 billion tenge.
Among other things, it is noted that the main source feeding the Caspian is the Volga, which provides 90% of its water resources. However, in recent years, Russia has built many dams on the river for agricultural needs, which has reduced the volume of water flowing into the Caspian Sea. Experts also point to the existing risk of the Volga itself shallowing.
"The shallowing of the Caspian has already led to the formation of new islands off the Russian coast. For example, the Caspian has receded several kilometres from the coast of Astrakhan, and vegetation has already appeared on the new islands," the report states.
It will be recalled that in the spring of 2024, it was reported that dead seal bodies were periodically found on the shore of the Caspian Sea. The first reports of dead animals appeared on 29 March. At that time, employees of the fisheries inspection in the Mangystau Region discovered 62 carcasses of dead seals in the Tupkaragan District.
On 25 April, employees of the regional fisheries inspection department found another 12 seal carcasses in this area. The department later reported that between 29 March and 25 April, 182 dead seals were found on the shore of the Caspian Sea.
From 24 October to 13 November 2024, specialists discovered 1,034 seal carcasses on the Caspian shore. A study of the water composition conducted by the Department of Ecology of the Mangystau Region did not reveal any anomalous deviations.
In early November, scientists discovered 426 dead seals on the coast of the Tubkaragan Peninsula. Research fellow at the "Institute of Hydrobiology and Ecology", Assel Baimukanova, reported preliminary results of the study of the dead seals in the Caspian Sea.
At the same time, ecologist and founder of the Central Asian Institute for Ecological Research (CAIER), Assel Tasmagambetova, stated that over the last 100 years, the population of the Caspian seal has shrunk by 90%. Tasmagambetova said that today there are fewer than 100,000 individuals.
In mid-November, the Fisheries Committee suggested that the cause of the mass death of seals on the Caspian Sea coast could be natural phenomena, including releases of natural gas resulting from underwater earthquakes.
In January of this year, the head of the laboratory at the scientific centre for microbiology and virology, Aidyn Kydyrmanov, stated that the cause of the seals' death was a viral neuroinfection.