Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, has commented on reports of mass closures of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) following the tax reform. In the corridors of the Mazhilis, he stated that he sees no grounds for negative scenarios being realised and considers some statistics to be taken out of context.
WHAT THE MINISTER SAID
According to Serik Zhumangarin, the government has various response scenarios, but there is currently no cause for concern. He also cited data on economic growth.
"Over the four-month period, the economy grew by 3.6%. This is despite the fact that we missed out on nearly 5 million tonnes of oil. If that volume had entered the economy, we would have already surpassed 6% growth," said Zhumangarin.
According to the minister, a significant portion of the closed businesses were either not actually operating or had changed their form of activity.
Serik Zhumangarin also stated that the authorities are recording growth in a number of economic sectors.
"You know, I don't like to boast, but manufacturing has grown by nearly 10% since the start of the year, construction, trade, transport – all sectors are growing. We believe that SME activity is currently quite good, and I see no reason to worry about it," the minister said.
WHY THE DISPUTE AROSE OVER THE TAX REFORM
One of the most debated provisions of the new Tax Code was the ban on deductions when entities under special tax regimes interact with companies on the general regime.
As Serik Zhumangarin explained, the authorities believe that repealing this provision would undermine the reform itself. According to him, the previous system allowed companies to be created with minimal tax burdens.
The minister noted that in some sectors, the combined rate under simplified regimes is 2%. He stated that after the restoration of previous mechanisms, the situation could repeat itself, including the emergence of companies with a single client or the artificial fragmentation of income.
Zhumangarin also stated that 71% of companies did not pay taxes before the tax reform.
HOW THE MINISTER EXPLAINED THE STATISTICS ON BUSINESS CLOSURES
According to Serik Zhumangarin, approximately 270,000 business entities have closed since the start of the year. However, he stated that 99,500 of them were not actually carrying out any activity, a further 13,000 belonged to entrepreneurs who had second companies, and 39,000 entities switched to the self-employed category.
Zhumangarin noted that, according to the ministry's assessment, approximately 150,000 of these companies "lost nothing".
CONTEXT AND SIGNIFICANCE
The tax reform remains a subject of public debate between the government and business representatives. Earlier, Serik Zhumangarin stated that by the end of the first quarter of 2026, the budget had received 4.1594 trillion tenge in tax revenues. According to him, VAT revenues increased by 48.6%, and the number of VAT payers rose by nearly 12,000.
At the same time, Mazhilis deputy Azat Peruashev questioned whether the increase in collections reflects the real state of business. He reported that entrepreneurs in Karaganda and Shymkent are complaining of a 30–40% drop in turnover due to restrictions in the B2B segment. Furthermore, according to the deputy, some companies are considering closing their businesses.
Earlier, the FBRK editorial team analysed data from the Bureau of National Statistics, according to which, by the end of 2025, more than 2.17 million active business entities were operating in Kazakhstan.
The sector's output exceeded 104.8 trillion tenge for the first time, and the share of SMEs in the country's GDP reached 40.9%. The main growth was driven by individual entrepreneurs, whose numbers exceeded 1.5 million. However, the statistics reflected the situation before the full implementation of the tax reform, which continues to be a subject of dispute between the government and business.