Based on the results of three quarters of this year, revenues of Kazakhstan's state budget increased by 23.4%. In monetary terms, this is approximately $40 billion (21.5 trillion tenge) — a figure close to the historical maximum. As Minister of Finance Madi Tokiev informed the President, the main contribution to the growth came from tax revenues, which accounted for over $28 billion (15 trillion tenge).
According to Ratel.kz, the minister noted that fiscal authorities, armed with digital tools, have learned to more effectively identify incomes hidden by businesses. In his words, the introduction of electronic receipt systems, online cash registers, and new control algorithms made it possible to block grey market flows and improve tax collection.
"What was previously the work of individual auditors is now done by AI. Quickly, without breaks, and with an absolute memory for all invoices," the minister stated.
According to Tokiev, the tax service does not intend to stop: further digitalisation of tax and customs administration processes is planned. The system is expected to become more efficient and transparent.
However, if you compare budget revenues with other indicators, the picture looks less optimistic. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, over eight months of this year, Kazakhstan's GDP grew by 6.5%, and industry added 7.6%. At the same time, the structure of growth remains the same — almost half comes from the raw materials sector and state investments.
Private capital, according to economists' estimates, still shows caution. Exports remain dependent on global prices for oil and metals, and domestic demand is supported by budget spending.
"One can assume that growing budget revenues are not a success of the economy, but a success of administration. That is, the system has simply started squeezing more out of the same sources. The state has 'seen the light' and a digital vacuum cleaner has begun to cleanse even the dust particles of willfully or unwittingly hidden income from businesses," the report states.
The government promises to direct part of the excess revenues towards infrastructure projects and industrial support. However, the practice of previous years shows that when additional funds appear, the main increase in spending goes to social programmes. It is reported that social spending increased from 8.5 trillion tenge in 2023 to 10.7 trillion tenge in 2025.
According to the source, similar digital reforms in neighbouring countries show a limited effect over time.
For example, in Uzbekistan, after the launch of the national fiscal platform, the growth in tax revenues was 25% in the first year, but after just two years it slowed to 6%. This confirms that strengthening administration yields a short-term result — it optimises the old model, but does not create a new economy.
Journalists highlight three systemic risks. The first is raw material dependence. In the current year, oil and metals still provided the bulk of export earnings. Any drop in commodity market prices could instantly 'eat up' part of the current budget revenues.
The second risk is budgetary imbalance. The state is raising the revenue target, but the majority of spending still goes to social payments and compensation, rather than development and innovation.
The third risk is the illusion of digital control. While algorithms find errors among cashiers issuing receipts on the wrong line, major tax evasion schemes are becoming more technological and harder to track. Without systemic transparency in public procurement and state audit, revenue growth could turn into a temporary digital bubble.